The upcoming Makerfield by-election has transformed into a high-stakes political drama that few saw coming. With only four days to go, the polls suggest that Andy Burnham, the incumbent Mayor of Greater Manchester, might be the beneficiary of a chaotic split on the right-wing end of the spectrum. The catalyst for this unexpected boost is the entry of “Restore Britain,” a hard-right political entity founded by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe. Since its inception in February—spurred by Lowe’s acrimonious exit from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK—the party has been aggressively carving out space to the right of the establishment, attempting to frame itself as a more uncompromising alternative for voters disillusioned with the status quo.
The rise of Restore Britain brings an unsettling edge to the local campaign, fueled by the digital influence of figures like Elon Musk and an aggressive, uncompromising policy platform. The party has adopted a hardline stance that goes well beyond the current rhetoric of other right-wing parties, specifically calling for the total abolition of the asylum system and the mass deportation of foreign nationals deemed to have “failed to integrate” or lacking fluency in English. This ideological shift has already drawn intense scrutiny, particularly following reports that some campaign activists had recently participated in a white supremacist gathering in Portugal, casting a long, dark shadow over the party’s claims of mainstream relevance.
As the political skirmish in Makerfield intensifies, the mathematical reality of the polls has started to rattle the cages at Reform UK headquarters. Recent surveys conducted by More in Common and Opinium suggest that while Andy Burnham maintains a lead—polling between 45% and 46%—the battle for second place is significantly complicating the outcome. Reform candidate Robert Kenyon is consistently polling in the low 40s, while Restore’s candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, holds roughly 7% to 8% of the vote. In a tight contest, this split is critical; election experts like Sir John Curtice have noted that Restore’s presence could easily act as a “spoiler,” effectively acting as the deciding factor that prevents a Reform victory and inadvertently clears a path for Labour to hold the seat.
The reaction from Nigel Farage’s camp has been one of mounting anxiety, marking the first time the Reform leader has faced a genuine, coordinated challenge from a rival party on his own right flank. Reform UK has resorted to defensive tactics, explicitly debuting the slogan “Vote Restore, get Burnham” in a desperate attempt to warn potential defectors that their support for a smaller party will ultimately hand the victory to their political opponent. This narrative of a “wasted vote” is a classic election maneuver, yet it highlights a genuine existential concern: if voters on the right continue to fracture, the collective influence of the movement risks being diluted to the point of irrelevance in high-stakes contests.
However, the question remains whether the voters flocking to Restore are truly converts who would have supported Reform, or if they are simply anti-establishment individuals who would have stayed home entirely had a more radical option not appeared on the ballot. This ambiguity makes the final outcome incredibly difficult to predict. For Andy Burnham, the atmosphere in the Labour camp is one of cautious optimism. His team recognizes that while the by-election is historically significant—serving as a potential springboard for a future leadership challenge against Keir Starmer—the volatility of the current electorate means that nothing can be taken for granted until the final ballot is cast on Friday morning.
Ultimately, the Makerfield by-election serves as a microcosm of the current turbulence in British politics, where ideological purity, social media influence, and volatile voter bases are upending traditional campaign strategies. Whether Restore Britain ultimately acts as a kingmaker or merely a localized irritant for Reform UK, its existence has undeniably altered the calculus of the race. As the nation watches to see if Burnham can capitalize on this right-wing infighting, the drama in Makerfield proves that even four days before an election, the ground can shift beneath the feet of the political elite, leaving the final outcome hanging in a fragile, unpredictable balance.
