The Ukrainian intelligence service (GUR) has been actively engaged in covert operations designed to undermine Russian influence and support rebel groups opposing Russian allies. A recent example is their involvement in Syria, where GUR reportedly provided training, drones, and personnel to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a key rebel group instrumental in the recent ousting of President Assad, a long-standing ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This Ukrainian intervention, while not massive in scale, underscores a broader pattern of covert Ukrainian activity in regions like the Middle East, Africa, and within Russia itself, aiming to counter Russian strategic interests and apply pressure where Moscow is vulnerable.
The Syrian operation, codenamed “Khimik” (The Chemists), involved the deployment of approximately 20 drone operators and 150 drones to Idlib, the rebel stronghold. This infusion of expertise and technology bolstered HTS’s capabilities, contributing to their success against Assad’s regime. The assistance served as a retaliatory measure against Russia’s substantial financial and military support to Assad, effectively disrupting Putin’s influence in the region. While Ukrainian officials have been relatively open about their involvement, US officials have reportedly denied knowledge of the operation.
Russia, for its part, has long acknowledged Ukraine’s presence in Idlib, accusing Ukrainian intelligence of conducting “dirty operations” there. Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Syrian Special Representative Alexander Lavrentyev, have publicly expressed concern about Ukrainian activities in Syria, highlighting the perceived threat posed by GUR’s actions. Before Assad’s removal, Russian narratives focused on alleging Ukrainian recruitment of Syrian fighters, claiming a “drones-for-fighters” exchange, but have since shifted to downplaying the significance of Ukrainian involvement following Assad’s ouster. This change in narrative suggests a recalibration of the Russian propaganda machine to adapt to the altered political landscape in Syria.
The Ukrainian covert operations extend beyond Syria. Reports indicate Ukrainian involvement in supporting rebels in northern Mali who clashed with the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company known for its close ties to the Kremlin. The reported outcome of this engagement resulted in significant casualties for the Wagner Group, further demonstrating Ukraine’s willingness to engage Russia indirectly through proxy forces in diverse geographical locations. This incident highlights Ukraine’s strategic approach of leveraging local conflicts to weaken Russian influence and inflict losses on its affiliated forces.
Ukraine’s proactive approach to countering Russian influence demonstrates a multi-faceted strategy. The covert operations in Syria and Mali exemplify Ukraine’s commitment to challenging Russia’s geopolitical ambitions beyond the immediate conflict within its own borders. These actions aim to destabilize Russian allies, disrupt their operations, and potentially draw resources away from the main theater of war in Ukraine. By supporting rebel groups and engaging in unconventional warfare tactics, Ukraine seeks to impose costs on Russia and create pressure points across various regions.
The covert operations, combined with Ukraine’s increasingly assertive public stance against Russian aggression, paint a picture of a nation actively seeking to defend its interests and weaken its adversary through a diverse range of strategies. The willingness to engage in covert warfare demonstrates a calculated approach to maximizing impact and exploiting vulnerabilities in Russia’s global network of alliances and operations. The continued evolution of these covert activities will likely remain a significant factor in the ongoing geopolitical struggle between Ukraine and Russia. This proactive approach signifies Kyiv’s determination to resist Russian influence and secure its own strategic interests in a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape.
